What We've Learned In Three Weeks

I really, really don't like skim milk, or as I prefer to call it, milk-water. It doesn't even taste remotely like real milk to me; it tastes very much like water that someone poured some milk into. I made a horrible mistake the other night at the grocery store and bought two gallons of this crap. And so, as I sit here eating my cereal with milk-water and hating every bite, I am in the proper mood for the rest of this post. So let me say first:

FOOTBALL DISCLAIMER: The remainder of this post discusses college football, with a large amount of analysis regarding OU football. If you're not interested in reading, check back later for something different.

We're three full weeks into the college football season, and what have we learned? Well, since I'm an OU fanatic, let's discuss what we've learned about OU to this point, after the three blowout wins against North Texas, Miami, and today, Utah State.

1. OU is a solid contender for the national title. At this point, with this offense and this defense, I would put them up against ANY team in the country. Period. Now, will they win the national title? Honestly, I doubt it, and I'll get into the reasons why in a little bit.

2. Sam Bradford is definitely for real. He has been almost flawless in the first three games, going 59-of-74 for 823 yards and 11 touchdowns, with only 1 interception (which came today as he was hit while throwing, which sent the pass slightly high and off the hands of Juaquin Iglesias, into the Utah State defender's diving grasp). I don't fault him for that one; it could happen to anyone. He's been very accurate, he's made good decisions, he's a great leader, and he's protected the ball. He's playing the way Josh Heupel and Jason White played in their careers, and he's doing it as a redshirt freshman. Folks, assuming no injury befalls Mr. Bradford (fingers triple-crossed -- we don't need him to imitate Jason White in another way), we have our quarterback of the future, hands down.

3. Speaking of quarterbacks of the future, we also found out today why Keith Nichol is NOT the starting quarterback. Nichol was given control of the offense for the rest of the game today after Bradford was pulled, and he completely blew it. He was absolutely dismal today, going 1-for-6 for 10 yards, making his career total 2-of-7 for 15 yards and no TDs. His passes were way off, he had no timing, his decision-making was mediocre and tentative, and his leadership was non-existent. His one decent play, and incidentally, his last of the day, was a scramble for 8 yards that was probably not the best play for that particular moment, given that OU needed about 13 yards for the first down. I find it amazing that we were told he was still a part of the quarterback competition all the way up to two weeks' before the opening game. Either Nichol has been showing better than he showed in the game today, or Stoops was being pretty sneaky all along. Halzle showed well at the end of last week's game to justify his spot, but after today, Nichol can't redshirt and will most likely sit in the #3 spot for the rest of the season.

4. The offensive line is completely DOMINATING. They're like the Baskin Robbins of domination; they have 31 flavors of it. Bradford has been sacked only twice in three games, and he always seems to have forever to figure out where to throw. (Sometimes I wonder if he takes a quick cat-nap before he makes his play.) And the holes these guys are opening up for OU's running backs? Nothing short of astounding. OU is averaging 5.6 yards per rush attempt, which goes up to 6 yards per rush if you take out the 56 yards lost on that bad punt snap last week. That's some serious blocking; when combined with the hyper-talented running backs, that becomes deadly.

5. Speaking of the running backs, what more can we say about DeMarco Murray? Everyone's already talking him up pretty good, for good reason, but that incredible 92-yard-TD run today, after he'd had a similar long run earlier in the game called back on a penalty, made me think of Adrian Peterson all over again. In fact, Allen Patrick ran today like he hadn't run in years, and I'm wondering if he's wanting to nip some of that DeMarco Murray talk in the bud before it gets out of hand...

6. OU's linebacking corps has not suffered one bit from last year's graduation losses. Curtis Lofton, Lewis Baker, and especially Ryan Reynolds have shown that they can step up and really carry on the tradition of amazing linebackers that have been a highlight of Bob Stoops' tenure at OU. He loses them, and he seems to just keep finding more to fill in the holes. Reynolds played today like a man possessed and he has been ultra-solid at the Will spot. Meanwhile, Lofton has become the anchor of the defense at the Mike spot, leading the team in tackles with 28 (16 solo, 12 assisted). In fact, that's not even close; Reynolds is second with 18 total, meaning Lofton has collected 10 more tackles than the second-place Reynolds in three games. Reynolds also adds 2 sacks for 16 yards. He has really stepped up the way Brent Venables was hoping he would.

7. The concerns at defensive end have been more than answered, with Auston English and John Williams sewing up the two starting spots. Williams has 4 tackles-for-loss for 20 yards, second on the team, and English has 3.5 TFL for 23 yards, third on the team. The only guy who has more is Nic Harris, the free safety who is used extensively in blitz packages, with 4.5 TFL for 25 yards.

8. OU's tight ends might be the best group in the country at that position. They regularly account for excellent catches; Jermaine Gresham and Joe Jon Finley are third and fourth on OU's season receiving list. Together they have accounted for 16 catches for 182 yards and 3 TDs. And that's not all; they're so versatile that OU is routinely using 2- and even 3-tight-end sets, because you have no idea what they'll do once the ball is snapped.

9. Malcolm Kelly and Juaquin Iglesias make up one of the best wide-receiver tandems in the country. Not only are they each averaging just over 100 receiving yards per game, but they almost never drop balls. In fact, I was joking with another fan today that Kelly is like a vacuum cleaner; he just sucks in every ball within 2 yards of him. Iglesias isn't far behind. Both are really fast and super-dangerous after the catch. I think that Malcolm Kelly will break Mark Clayton's single-season TD catch record, which is fitting because I think Malcolm Kelly is a better receiver than Clayton. That's nothing against Mark, who was one of the best, but Malcolm might be the best wide receiver OU has ever had, bar none.


So that's the story for OU. What have we learned about the rest of the country?

Well, first, OU probably won't win the national championship. It's not because they're not great, and it's not because they're not deserving. As I said, I'd put them up against any team in the country tomorrow. However, OU's problem is in schedule strength; OU's past and future opponents aren't exactly burning up the world, and outside of OU and Kansas, the Big 12 is not showing well at all. Let's do a quick rundown.

• North Texas -- Well, it's North Texas and they have a brand-new coach in his first year at the college level. This time last year, Dodge was coaching high school in Dallas. OU destroyed UNT 79-10 (and it could have been worse). In week 2, UNT did much better against SMU but still lost 45-31.
• Miami -- They're OU's big hope, and unfortunately I have to cheer for them as much as possible. They did well against Marshall, winning 31-3, then got stomped by OU, then beat Florida International today by the meager score of 23-9. They're definitely not your father's Miami.
• Utah State -- They're now 0-3 and they play in the WAC. Nothing more needs to be said.
• Tulsa -- OU is hoping TU holds up well, and so far they have; they just haven't looked real good doing it. They beat Louisiana-Monroe 35-17...not so good. Tonight they pulled out a wild one against BYU 55-47...a real defensive battle there. It looks like OU will be pulling down another 50+ points next Friday night.
• Colorado -- Ah, CU. They pulled out the overtime win against CSU, which means nothing because it's a rivalry game and CSU lead most of the game. Then CU got stomped last week by Arizona State, 33-14. As I write this, with four-and-a-half minutes left in the game, they're down 16-0 to Florida State AT HOME.
• Texas -- And then there's Texas. All I can ask is, who IS this team, really? They have struggled in every game so far this year, and seem to have reached their 3-0 record merely on talent alone. Nearly losing to Arkansas State, going scoreless in the first half against TCU, and needing a fluke fumble to pull out a win over Central Florida? Mack Brown is probably going to see his 2-game winning streak against OU end come October 6th.
• Missouri -- The Tigers have done well and are one of the four top teams in the Big 12, but they need more consistent play. Still, they've beaten Illinois, Mississippi, and Western Michigan, and that's the good news. The bad news is that they've given up 83 points and 447 yards per game to that mediocre competition. That's great news when OU plays them with their 565 yards-per-game average, but it's bad news for OU because it's obvious that Missouri has no defense and will have difficulty winning more games.
  
• Iowa State -- The Cyclones are 1-2 after losing horribly to Kent State and I-AA Northern Iowa, but pulling out a victory against Iowa. That victory against Iowa might be their only win this year. They have a chance against Toledo next week but they then start Big 12 play.
• Texas A&M -- They beat I-AA Montana State, eked out an overtime win over a mediocre Fresno State team last week, then won handily over Louisiana-Monroe...all at home. They should do well, but they'll still likely lose to Nebraska, OU, and Texas Tech, all of whom they play away from the friendly confines of Kyle Field and the 12th Man.
• Baylor -- ummmm...uh...hmm. Well, I will say Baylor's a little better this year, but they're still Baylor and they're still 1-2 to this point.
• Texas Tech -- This will be a dangerous game for OU because it's an away game and Tech has done fairly well to this point. They're 3-0, but it's against SMU, UTEP, and Rice. Plus, OU heads back to Lubbock for the first time since Tech's questionable "win" in 2005, and they'll be looking for some payback.
• Oklahoma State -- OSU has been a real enigma this year, winning easily at Florida Atlantic but losing just as easily to Troy and an overrated Georgia team. Their quarterback play has been a nightmare, their receivers can't hold on to anything, and their defense has been mediocre. Considering that everyone was trumpeting OSU as the Big Sleeper in the Big 12 this year, they've crashed and burned horribly.
• Big 12 North Champion -- Well, this will probably be Nebraska, but it could just as easily be Missouri, Kansas(!), or Kansas State. In any case, Nebraska probably would give OU the best bang for its buck, but even that wouldn't be much more than a cap-gun.

In short, OU's strength of schedule should have been pretty good and instead it's been pretty bad. Let's hope these teams can start to stiffen up a bit next week, because once Big 12 play starts it's pretty much a zero-sum game for OU.

We've also learned that there are four legitimate players for the national title: OU, LSU, USC, and Florida. Everyone else is playing for 5th. Right now, if I had to rank the top teams based on their first three weeks' production, LSU and OU are tied at #1, USC and Florida are tied right behind them. We'll see how the season shakes out, and much like our friends at the Crimson and Cream Machine posited last week, OU will probably need all those teams to lose at least one if they're going to reach the Big Game.

We've learned that the Big Ten is heavily overrated this year. Considering the preseason predictions of greatness for Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes' struggles and Michigan's total collapse, Penn State's sluggish start against lowly #119 Buffalo and Wisconsin's struggles against UNLV last week, all show that those top names are missing something critical to success. And then there's Northwestern...keep that name in your head for later in the post. The shocker has been Michigan State, who has calmly rolled to a 3-0 record.

And the Big Ten's names aren't the only ones struggling. Let's tick off the list of the Top 25. Texas has struggled mightily all year, with no convincing wins. Louisville, mentioned as a contender for a BCS game, lost today to Kentucky. UCLA, talked up all summer as the best competitor against USC for the Pac-10 title, lost HUGE today to Utah (yes, UTAH). Arkansas lost today to Alabama. Georgia was supposed to take on the world and has nearly fallen out of the rankings. Ditto Tennessee. Boise State has squandered all their "good will" after their BS win against OU in January, and they've quickly fallen out of the rankings. Notre Dame is just flat-out terrible. Florida's best team might be...SOUTH FLORIDA; Florida State and Miami are shadows of their former selves.

Sad as it is to say, Mike Stoops will probably be fired after this year at Arizona. This is his fourth year there, and he still manages to lose to the likes of New Mexico, as he did today. U of A lost to BYU in week 1, the same BYU that got beat by Tulsa today. Their only win was against I-AA Northern Arizona. Personally, I hope he gets fired, then comes back to OU as co-defensive coordinator. He should stick with what he does best, namely, run and tune a great defense like a well-oiled machine. Before this year, OU's defense really missed his intensity after he announced his departure just before the 2003 Big 12 Championship, and it has showed.

The SEC is the top conference in the country. Outside of Auburn (who has lost two straight at home to South Florida and Mississippi State) and Ole Miss (who can't seem to win much anywhere), they're pretty solid top-to-bottom. Today's highlights include LSU's blowout of a decent Middle Tennessee team, Kentucky's upset of #8 Louisville, and Alabama's upset of #16 Arkansas.

Finally, congratulations to Duke, who managed to end their 22-game losing streak today against...Northwestern (remember, I told you to keep that name in your head!). As if the Big Ten needed another black eye...

I had fun pretending to be a college football analyst for a little while. Thanks for reading along.